How To Play A 20% Rise In Gold In 3 Months

FX Concepts' John Taylor was on Bloomberg TV yesterday and he said that he sees gold at $1,900 at October, which is a 20% rise in just three months. Here is a link courtesy of ZeroHedge that has the interview with Taylor on Bloomberg talking about what he foresees happening later this year. After that sharp run up, Taylor said he sees gold plunging to $1,100 an ounce as another recession hits the globe, which Taylor believes will be worse than 2008. Talk about being optimistic. Taylor said that he sees the Euro going as low as $1.15 this year, and may hit parity with the U.S. dollar, although Taylor has made that call before. Taylor has been notoriously bearish on the economic policies of the U.S. and Europe, and is generally regarded as one of the best forex traders on the planet. Interestingly enough, he runs the largest FX hedge fund in the world. Taylor has been incredibly bearish for some time, and predicted a lot of the problems that Europe is currently experiencing in a Bloomberg conference at the end of last year. He has been worried about the problems of the "PIIGS," and we saw today that Greece essentially has to have a Marshall plan to help save it, and even this plan may not save it. Taylor believes that the U.S. is running out of time and options to prevent a slowdown, and Europe is likely to fall with it in the coming months. Gold has long been a safe haven currency, despite what federal reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke thinks. With a looming debt crisis of our own, gold has crossed the $1,600 mark, and if Taylor is right, could see another run to $1,900 an ounce before too long. If S&P actually does downgrade U.S. debt to AA next month should a deal on the deficit and debt ceiling not be done, then mass chaos would happen in the global asset markets, and gold and silver probably would see record inflows, inline with Taylor's thinking. Despite his considerable bearishness, Taylor has been wrong before, as he has said before the Euro would go to $1.20, and it has not hit that level yet. He is probably right to continue to be bearish on the U.S. dollar, as Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC are hellbent on doing whatever they can to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar in an effort to stimulate the economy. QE1 and QE2 have done little but raise equity prices, cause inflation, and perhaps make add a few jobs, although no one can really quantify how many jobs have been saved or added thanks to the Federal Reserve's policies. So how should you play Taylor's theory that gold will run 20% in the next few months? ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that gold is likely to soar as Taylor suggests might want to consider the following trades:

• Go long junior gold miners, such as Hecla Mining HL, Yamana Gold AUY or the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ. If gold jumps, these names are likely to do better than larger gold miners.

• If you do not want the volatility that comes with owning smaller miners, consider owning the Market Vectors Gold Etf Trust GDX, which owns larger miners, and is less volatile. Silver should also do well in this scenario, and names like First Majestic Silver Corp. AG will do well.

Bearish:
Traders who believe that the U.S. dollar is likely to continue to fall may consider alternate positions:

• Shorting the U.S. dollar, either by shorting PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP, or going long PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish UDN.

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