Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Primed For $3.5B In 2021 Sales: Analyst

The mRNA coronavirus vaccine in development by Pfizer Inc. PFE and BioNTech SE – ADR BNTX is poised for an emergency use authorization application, according to SVB Leerink. 

The Pfizer Analyst: Geoffrey Porges has a Market Perform rating on Pfizer shares.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine candidate BNT162b2 will likely report interim efficacy results within the next few weeks and then advance to an emergency use filing, Porges said in a note.

BNT162b2 has a high likelihood of achieving its efficacy and safety outcomes and advancing to at least initial emergency approval in November, the analyst said.

"We believe there is a high probability of BNT162b2 being granted an EUA for high risk populations in the fourth quarter." 

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SVB Leerink's vaccine market model assumes permanent risk from SARS-CoV-2, necessitating re-vaccination every two years to maintain protective immunity, Porges said. 

Relatively high vaccine penetration to the tune of 80% is likely in health care workers and high-risk adults such as the elderly and those with comorbidities, and low penetration is foreseen for low-risk adults and ultimately children, the analyst said.

"We also forecast an initial large bolus of vaccination in 2021-2022E given the size of the COVID naïve population, followed by a stable re-vaccination trend into 2030Es," he said. 

Porges expects two initial doses for priming immunization, and then a single booster every two years.

Given Pfizer's lead position in clinical development, strong immunogenicity data and seemingly clean safety profile, BNT162b2 is expected to take more than 50% of the market share initially, which would decrease over time to 25% as more products enter the market place, the analyst said.

Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be priced at $30 per dose in the U.S. and $23 in regions outside of the U.S. initially, with the price falling to $11-$15 per dose over time, he said. 

Incorporating BNT162b2 in SVB Leerink's Pfizer model with an 80% probability of success, Porges said he expects it to generate $3.54 billion in sales in 2021 and $1.57 billion in 2024.

PFE Price Action: Pfizer shares were down 0.56% at $37.28 at last check Wednesday. 

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