Morgan Stanley Comments on Allergan After Migraine Survey

Morgan Stanley has published a report on Allergan AGN after a Botox migraine survey was conducted. In the report Morgan Stanley wrote, "Our AlphaWise survey of 350 neurologists suggests that Botox migraine penetration may be faster than we project, but patient pool may be smaller, yielding patient numbers similar to what we model in 2013. The survey supports our view that there is likely to be upward pressure on revenue and EPS as utilization and dosing increase. See page 6 for our Botox revenue projections vs. consensus. Our survey results suggest that there are approximately 1M patients currently under the care of neurologists who would be candidates for Botox to treat their headaches, and that by 2013, approximately 220,000 patients (22% penetration) could be receiving Botox to treat their headaches. In our model, we currently assume a prevalence of 2.5M patients (mid-point of AGN's estimate of 1.2–3.6M) and a 9% penetration rate in 2013, or 223,000 patients." Morgan Stanley rated Allergan an Overweight with a price target of $90.00. Allergan Inc closed Monday at $83.16.