A Pfizer Analyst's 3 Possible Coronavirus Vaccine Readout Scenarios

The first Interim data from an ongoing, late-stage coronavirus trial by Pfizer Inc. PFE is expected sometime after the U.S. presidential elections, according to an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.

The Pfizer Analyst: Louise Chen has an Overweight rating and $53 price target for Pfizer shares.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer plans to report the results if they are definitive — achieving 76.9% or more efficacy in 32 total number of cases, or if the vaccine fails, Chen said in a Monday note.

The potential stock reaction to a vaccine readout will in part hinge on macro factors and competing vaccines and treatments, the analyst said.

She discussed three possible scenarios for the vaccine readout and outlined how Pfizer's stock could trade under each one. 

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If Pfizer reports positive data at the first interim analysis, the company's shares will trade higher, with all else being equal, Chen said.

If the vaccine candidate becomes a worldwide, recurring revenue stream for Pfizer, it will likely augment net present value by about $5 per share, the analyst said. 

Under the second scenario of Pfizer reporting positive efficacy data and the vaccine being only a one-time benefit for the company, $2 per share will accrue to the net present value, she sad.

A one-time benefit means that once everyone is vaccinated, then there is no longer a recurring revenue stream to the company, Chen said. 

Under the third scenario of the vaccine candidate failing, Pfizer shares would lose about $4, the analyst said.

"This is because FactSet consensus already has $1.4B of sales for PFE's COVID-19 vaccine in 2020, $8.7B in 2021 and ~$2.1B annually, thereafter."

PFE Price Action: At last check, Pfizer shares were down 2.11% at $36.23.

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