Yen Rises on Strong Tertiary Sector Activity

The Japanese yen rose on Wednesday on strong tertiary sector activity. Presently, the U.S. dollar is trading around ¥76.87, or 0.14% below its previous close, while the euro retreated 0.31% to stand around ¥110.3. On Wednesday, Japan's economy posted some encouraging news. According to Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, tertiary sector activity index rose 1.9% in July compared to the previous month. The July figure was on top of 0.8% recorded in June and 1% expected by most analysts. The index includes sectors like retail trade, finance, accommodation, transportation etc. Japan's economy has been hit hard by the twin natural disaster in March, which has created energy shortages and supply disruptions. Since then, the Japanese economy has been on a slow path to recovery. The latest figures might be a sign that the Japanese recovery is gaining momentum. However, Japan is an export-oriented economy, so the latest threat of a double dip recession in the U.S. and the Eurozone could hurt Japan's growth prospects. Asia's largest economy, China, has been posting strong results on Wednesday as well. The latest data show that China's trade surplus rose to $31.5 billion, its highest level in 2 years. The July figure comfortably beat $27.4 billion expected by most analysts and $22.3 billion reported in June. The July figure was driven primarily by rising exports. On a yearly basis, exports rose 20.4% in July, above 17.9% recorded in June and 17% expected by analysts. At the same time, imports increased by 22.9% year-over-year, slightly higher than 22% expected by most analysts and June's value of 19.3%. China's economic performance has remained impressive throughout the current financial crisis in the developed world. The latest figures will likely reinforce analysts' belief that there is a lot more power left in the Asian Dragon. At the same time, rising trade surplus will provide more ammunition to the Western governments, which have been claiming for a while now that the Chinese authorities are using undervalued currency to give an unfair edge to Chinese exporters. China and Japan should be also buoyed by the recent fall in oil prices, since both countries rely heavily on importing raw materials. The price of oil has fallen sharply since the downgrade of the U.S. debt highlighted the possibility of a double dip recession in the world's largest economy. Presently, crude oil stands around $81.50, or 0.26% above its previous close. The price of natural gas fell 0.22% to $4.013, while copper retreated 0.19% to trade around $4.036. ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that low commodity prices will provide additional steam to the Japanese recovery might want to consider the following trades:

• CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF FXY is a long play on the yen. FXY may rise if the yen appreciates.

• ProShares Ultra Yen ETF YCL is another long play on the yen. However, YCL should rise more than FXY if the yen appreciates.

• PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN DDP is a short play on commodities. DDP may rise if the prices of commodities fall.

Bearish:
Traders who believe that strong growth in China will help push up the prices of commodities, which, along with the slowdown in the United States and the Eurozone, could damage Japan's growth prospects may consider an alternate positions:

• ETFS Short Japanese Yen Long US Dollar ETC (Sterling) ETF (SJPP) is a short play on the yen. SJPP may rise if the yen depreciates.

• ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF YCS is another short play on the yen. However, YCS should rise more than SJPP if the yen depreciates.

• Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN DJP is a long play on commodities. DJP may rise if the prices of commodities increase.

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