Express Scripts, Inc. ESRX has historically provided annual guidance with respect to anticipated future financial results. This guidance is based on a variety of assumptions, plans and expectations, and, as stated in the Company's various filings and releases, actual results may differ significantly from those originally projected or suggested in such guidance for a variety of reasons.
In October of 2010, Express Scripts provided certain financial guidance for full-year 2011, which was reaffirmed in July of 2011. Specifically, the Company indicated that it expected to achieve adjusted earnings per share in the range of $3.15 to $3.25. Based on a number of factors described below, the Company now expects that adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $2.95 to $3.05 for 2011, down approximately 6% from the prior range.
While changes in circumstances, such as significant improvement in the economy during the fourth quarter or other factors, could allow Express Scripts to achieve results closer to its original guidance range, the Company does not believe such results are likely at this time. The revised range would result in adjusted earnings per share growth of between 18% and 22% over 2010.
As part of Express Scripts' original adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2011, the Company indicated that total adjusted claims were expected to be in the range of 750 to 780 million. In determining this estimate, the Company assumed that aggregate growth in claims with respect to fiscal year 2011 as compared to fiscal year 2010, resulting from utilization increases and organic growth, would be approximately 3.5%, offset by various factors, with only nominal growth during the first and second quarters, increased growth beginning in the third quarter, and higher growth in the fourth quarter.
These assumptions were based in significant part on the Company's belief that improving economic conditions would lead to improvements in utilization and organic growth by the end of 2011. At mid-year, while it was becoming more apparent that economic conditions might not be improving as anticipated, Express Scripts still believed that some level of improvement in the economy, together with new client starts in the second half of the year, would mitigate the impact of lower than expected utilization and organic growth. Based on this and other key factors the Company was able to reiterate its 2011 EPS guidance in July 2011.
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