Monday's Market Minute: Will The Fed Make A Move?

We start and end the week rather quiet, with no significant economic data on Monday or Friday. Looking back, last Friday’s June Consumer Sentiment Index came in stronger than expected at 86.4 compared to a consensus of 84.0, up from May’s 82.9. Friday’s reports of Total and U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts increased, adding pressure to the price of crude oil (/CL), which is holding above $71 per barrel.

Tuesday is the May Retail Sales number, expected to be -0.4%, down from May’s flat report. Also reporting is the June Empire State Manufacturing Index, containing survey results from 200 New York manufacturing executives and their 6-month outlook.

Wednesday is a big day with May Building Permits expected to be 1.73M and Housing Starts expected at 1.63M, both projections showing continuing strength in the housing sector. Wednesday afternoon we have the FOMC meeting, with the Fed Chair Powell press conference following at 2:30 p.m. ET. All ears will be listening for any clues that the Fed may hint at tapering or suggest a policy change.

Thursday morning will be the closely watched Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims numbers. Last week’s 376K Initial Weekly Jobless Claims number showed a continued declining trend in claims, so these anticipated numbers may further confirm the strength of the trend or refute it. We also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, another key industrial indicator.

Earnings season has wound down, with only a few stragglers reporting this week. Tuesday is H&R Block HRB, La-Z-Boy LZB, and Oracle ORCL after market close. Oracle hit a 52-week high on June 8 and is expected to have EPS of $1.31, according to Zacks. We’ll see if it can break through its 52-week high once again or if it will retreat on the news. Homebuilder Lennar LEN reports Wednesday after the bell. Lennar has potential to continue its stock price decline from its May peak if it misses Zacks EPS estimate of $2.34. The last noteworthy earnings are Thursday, with Kroger KR reporting in premarket and Adobe ADBE after the bell. We’ll see if Adobe can sustain its recent breakout levels.

Image by Christopher Kuszajewski from Pixabay