Greif Earnings Preview: Impact Expected From European Uncertainty

Greif GEF is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2011 results tomorrow, December 7, after the closing bell. The Delaware-based industrial packaging company recently lowered its full-year earnings outlook, despite a near record year, due to lower-than-expected sales in Western Europe. And this will be the first quarterly report since the new CEO took over in November. The consensus forecast calls for Greif to report quarterly earnings of $0.61 per share, a drop from $1.51 in the same period of last year. And for the full year, analysts are looking for $3.69 per share, compared to $4.35 a year ago. Note that Greif earnings were less than expected in two of the past six quarters, including an 11.3% miss in the third quarter. However, analysts also expect the company to report that fourth-quarter revenues increased 4.9% from a year ago to $1.0 billion. Full-year revenues are anticipated to be 19.9% higher year over year to $4.2 billion. And analysts so far expect revenues in the current quarter to be up 4.0%, with EPS down 22.1%. The Company Headquartered in Delaware, Ohio, this company manufactures and sells of industrial packaging products worldwide. Its business segments include Rigid Industrial Packaging and Services, Flexible Products and Services, Paper Packaging, as well as Land Management, which develops and harvests timberland. The company was founded in 1877 and its market cap is now $2.2 billion. During the three months that ended in October, the company underwent the transition of the CEO mentioned above, with the new chief taking up the reins on November 1, the start of the new fiscal year. The company also selected a new chief sustainability officer, promoted from within. Performance Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14.6% over the next five years and the return of equity is 18.4%. Greif's dividend yield is 3.6%. The P/E ratio is lower than the industry average, and the operating margin is higher than the industry average. Analysts have a mean price target of $53.50 per share, which is more than 13% higher than the current share price. Shares have traded mostly between $42 and $49 since mid-September; the 52-week low is $40.77. The share price is down more than 23% year to date, and it is below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Over the past six months, the stock has underperformed competitors such as Ball Corp. BLL and Rock-Tenn RKT, as well as the broader markets. Action Items: Bullish: Investors interested in exchange traded funds invested in Greif might want to consider the following trades:

• First Trust Materials AlphaDEX FXZ is more than 29% higher than a recent 52-week low.
• WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend DES is more than 20% higher than a recent 52-week low.
• Guggenheim Timber CUT is almost 14% higher than a recent 52-week low.

Bearish: Traders may want to consider these alternative positions:

• Owens-Illinois OI is more than 17% higher than three months ago.
• MeadWestvaco MWV is about 15% higher than three months ago.
• Rock-Tenn RKT is about 11% higher than three months ago.

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