Tesla Q2 Deliveries Evidence of 'True Growth Story,' EV Maker On Track to Exceed 2021 Deliveries Forecast: Gene Munster

Tesla, Inc. TSLA reported record quarterly deliveries for the June quarter. Commenting on the data, Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster said the deliveries are further evidence of a "true growth story."

Tesla In Slope of S-Curve:  Excluding the impact of easy comps, Tesla appears to be in the slope of its "S-curve" due to a combination of consumer willingness to buy EVs and the company's winning formula of performance and value, analyst Munster said.

The June quarter deliveries represented a 122% year-over-year growth, accelerating the 109% growth in the March quarter and 61% growth in the December quarter, the analyst noted. The overall auto industry is growing around 55% in the June quarter, Munster added.

Source: Loup Ventures

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Tesla On Tap to Exceed 2021 Guidance:  Tesla has delivered a total of 386,000 vehicles in the first half of the year. The Street expectation of 853,000 deliveries for 2021 suggests the company has already sold about 45% of the year's target, Munster said.

He added that Tesla typically delivers roughly 55-59% of vehicles in the second half of the year. It implies the company is on track to deliver about 850,000 to 900,000 vehicles in 2021.

Tesla Outperformed Despite Headwinds:  Tesla faced more headwinds than tailwinds in the second quarter, Munster said. The tailwind was the easier comps during the quarter concerning the 2020 second quarter when the Fremont factory was shut down for most of the period.

On the other hand, the company faced two headwinds, including chip shortages that affected production and inventory of most automakers and soft Model S and X deliveries due to the ongoing model refresh, the analyst said. Munster expects Modes S/X deliveries to rebound in the September quarter.

Tesla Vs. Legacy Automakers:  As opposed to General Motors Company's GM 40% growth in the June quarter and Toyota Motor Corporation's TM 70% growth, Tesla clocked 122% growth, Munster noted. It is consistent with the 50% delivery growth gap Tesla has maintained with the broader auto industry over the past year.

Although the comparison is flawed, given the comparison between Tesla's global numbers versus the other automakers' U.S. deliveries, the trend is still representative, the analyst reasoned.

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