Don't Bet the FarmVille on Zynga's Success

If unrelenting greed wasn't enough to chase investors away, maybe Zynga's accounting practices will turn them off. Business Insider has posted an interesting video from Bloomberg's Cory Johnson, in which the reporter breaks down the social game company's revenue and so-called profits. In short, Zynga is doing even worse than we thought. It's no surprise, really. How many times do I have to reiterate the company's ongoing mistakes before the world wakes up and realizes that Zynga is hopeless? Frankly, I would love for social gaming to thrive. It would be great to see a brilliant studio produce groundbreaking content (for Facebook or any other social network) and build an entirely new venue for the industry. But from its inception, Zynga has not done anything to show that it is capable of thinking outside the box. Instead, the company has relied on gimmicky Hollywood tricks and re-released the same games over and over again under new names. If a real game company – Electronic Arts ERTS, Activision ATVI, Sony SNE, Microsoft MSFT, THQ THQI, Majesco COOL, etc. – were to behave this way, it would be laughed out of the industry. In fact, that's just what happened to Acclaim, the long-forgotten company that brought us Turok: Dinosaur Hunter (long before Disney DIS acquired the property). Acclaim couldn't go a year without rehashing last year's baseball game. And where is the company now? The Acclaim name still exists, but the actual game publisher does not. Zynga is about to face the same fate. While it is wholly possible that the firm could be acquired before shutting its doors (corporations love to buy companies just as they are about to go under), any such buyout may come too late for investors who dive into the stock upon its IPO. While the company is smart to start at a lower price than other tech IPOs (Zynga is slated to launch at a per share price between $8.50 and $10), the company is likely to rise quickly, if only in the first few days. But investors get scared. They become emotionally tied to their stocks. And then they run. What Zynga and few others seem to realize is that consumers can be equally as emotional. From childhood and beyond, we become attached to certain properties (Star Wars films), obsessed with certain brands (Ford F cars, Apple AAPL computers), and frequently return to places that offer iconic items (McDonald's MCD McRib sandwich is so popular, TV sitcoms mention it by name). This is the time in which Zynga should be making a permanent mark on its players. But with generic-looking characters rehashed in every single game, and with repetitive gameplay that isn't any fun, Zynga isn't forming any long-lasting relationships. Just look at Angry Birds. It may be new, and it may ultimately prove to be a fad. But it has successfully invaded retailers like Target TGT and Wal-Mart WMT with a plethora of apparel and toy items that, if nothing else, demonstrate just how powerful the Angry Birds brand has become. To be clear, I think the Angry Birds hype is overblown; instead of gradually releasing new toys, Rovio has licensed its brand to anyone and everyone who wants a piece of the action. This strategy rarely works out well in the long run. But at 200 million downloads of the original Angry Birds, the inevitable sequel is guaranteed to be successful. Even if the majority of the existing Angry Birds fans decided to walk away, Rovio should still be able to maintain at least 25% of its market. At that rate, Angry Birds 2 would sell a bare minimum of 50 million downloads. What other iPhone developer can say that about an upcoming release? The sad truth for Zynga is that it doesn't have a fan base. Though we all know a guy or girl (most likely a girl) who has become obsessed with FarmVille or some other ridiculous Zynga title, I have never met anyone – or know anyone who knows anyone – who says that they truly love the Zynga game(s) that they play. In fact, I've never met a Zynga player who has anywhere near the enthusiasm for those games that I have for Super Mario. For a company that claims to be selling entertainment, that is a serious problem. If Zynga isn't turning any of its customers into lifelong supporters, the company will not survive. Zynga may one day tell the world that it will release new and innovative products to grow its market share (a common statement made by dying companies, especially those within the entertainment industry). But until the day comes when it actually releases a game that people care about – I mean really, really care about – Zynga won't have any hope of surviving. Follow me @LouisBedigian Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.