P&G Is Making the Best Out of a Tough Situation

Last Tuesday, the Procter & Gamble Company PG topped Wall Street's estimates both for its fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue. Like its peers, Colgate-Palmolive Company CL, General Mills Inc GIS, and Kleenex maker Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB, it resorted to price increases this year to help make up the difference. Price hikes did help offset higher freight costs but it wasn't enough to keep up with climbing commodity costs.

The company raised its forecast for inflation, predicting that higher commodity and freight costs could trim fiscal 2022 earnings by $2.3 billion, which is worse than its prior outlook of $1.9 billion. Upon the report, shares fell more than 2% in pre-market trading, putting the stock at risk of losing this year's gains.

Quarter Figures

For the fiscal first quarter that ended on September 30th, net sales rose 5% to $20.34 billion, topping expectations of $19.91 billion. Although mounting supply chain challenges took some shine off stronger quarterly sales., organic revenue, which strips out the impact of acquisitions, divestitures, and foreign currency, increased by 4% YoY as it was helped by higher pricing and demand for laundry detergent, razors, and healthcare products. But this figure looks less optimistic when compared to last year's 6% spike.

Net income dropped 4% YoY due to higher expenses. It amounted to$4.11 billion, or $1.61 per share, whereas analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting a bigger decline with earnings per share of $1.59.

Segments

P&G has benefited from resurging demand in the personal hygiene aisle as consumers returned to offices and social gatherings. But demand for pantry staples such as toilet paper has continued to be just as resilient.

Health care which includes brands like Oral-B was the company's top-performing segment this quarter, with organic sales growth of 7%.

Fabric and home care, P&G's largest segment, saw an organic sales growth of 5%.

The grooming business that includes its legacy razors also enjoyed an increase in organic sales amounting to 4%.

The beauty and baby, feminine, and family care units both experienced a 2% rise in organic revenue. The beauty segment owes it to hair-care and skin and personal-care divisions, which exhibited both higher volume and innovation in hair treatments. The baby unit benefited from more consumers buying premium Pampers diapers and pants, managing to offset the fall of organic sales of Charmin toilet paper and Bounty paper towels despite increased promotion spending.

All in all, the good news is that P&G grew sales across all of its business segments.

More Price Hikes

As increased pricing reaches store shelves, the company is closely monitoring consumption trends and while it is still early, it has not observed any notable changes in consumer behavior. The company will ramp up its productivity programs throughout the fiscal year and still plans to introduce innovation to improve value to follow up the higher pricing.

P&G CFO Andre Schulten announced price hikes on selected products from the beauty, oral care and grooming range, without intentionally prioritizing premium products.

Guidance

Despite the challenges, P&G stuck to its prior full-year forecasts, both in terms of earnings and revenue. It is calling for fiscal year sales to grow 2% to 4% from the prior year and core earnings per share to increase in the range from 3% to 6%. After-tax commodity costs are expected to add up to $2.1 billion with freight expenses of $200 million. When it reported its previous quarter three months ago, management forecasted that the combined effect of commodity and freight costs would hit its fiscal 2022 earnings by $1.9 billion.

A Steady Outlook

P&G remains one of the most efficient businesses on the market. Operating cash flow was almost $5 billion with nearly all of those earnings converted into free cash. Free cash flow conversion is expected to be as high as 90% for the full fiscal year.

Making the Best Out of A Tough Situation

Management does not expect that commodity cost pressures will ease, but higher selling prices are supposed to soften the blow. The company has no other choice but to continue paying more for raw materials as well as fuel, while still experiencing truck driver shortages. By the looks of it, this won't be the only time that higher costs weighed on the company's profits as the company believes inflation is still increasing and taking a hit to consumers' wallets.

According to the Financial Times, it is dangerously approaching near its highest level in 13 years.

Supply chain costs would be higher than it had previously anticipated but P&G is doing the best it can by having backup suppliers, changing shipping routes, reformulating products, and even limiting how much a retailer can buy.

Despite soaring commodity costs and supply-chain disruptions, the consumer products giant managed to continue growing its business in the latest reported quarter. Management did warn those issues will take a bigger bite out of fiscal 2022 earnings, but the company is still expecting another strong year for the business. All in all, as CEO David Taylor summarized it, the company delivered solid results in a challenging cost and operating environment.

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