Thursday's Market Minute: A Santa Claus Rally For Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is in the middle of a critical range as this shortened Christmas trading week draws to a close today. The cryptocurrency futures contract has traded in a relatively tight range in recent weeks, once again in a zone between about 46,000 and 52,000 since its 6% gap-down opening on Dec. 6 after a severe weekend sell-off in the underlying product. This is familiar turf for /BTC; both lines have often been both support and resistance as price fluctuated throughout the year, and Volume Profile shows especially heavy trading action within this range.

There are a couple of signs that could suggest a year’s-end rally is brewing for /BTC. The Parabolic SAR registered a bullish crossover on Tuesday and the MACD did the same yesterday, both of which are typically regarded as signs of upside momentum. However, it also failed to reclaim the 200-day Simple Moving Average yesterday and is trading below most other major moving averages.

If the crypto can break out of its range to the upside, it still has to push through the resistance confluence of the yearly Linear Regression Line and the 63-day Exponential Moving Average near 53,350. For support, watch out for the last of the major moving averages that remains to the downside, the 252-EMA near 44,350.

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