Analyst Says Tesla's Q4 Is A 'Trophy Case' Quarter, Why He Thinks Momentum Building Into 2022

Tesla, Inc. TSLA on Sunday reported record deliveries for the fourth quarter as well as for the full-year 2021.

The Tesla Analyst: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,400 price target on Tesla shares, with the bull-case price target at $1,800.

The Tesla Thesis: Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries of 309,000 units, exceeded the Street consensus of 266,000 and the bull-case whisper numbers in the 275,000 range, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, according to the analyst, was driven by robust Model 3/Y sales of 297,000 compared to the consensus of 252,000 units. Model S/X deliveries of 12,000 trailed the consensus estimate of 13,000, the analyst said.

Production was at 306,000 units, about 20,000 ahead of Wedbush's estimate, Ives said.

"This was a "trophy case" quarter for Musk & Co. with massive momentum moving into 2022," the analyst wrote in the note.

Related Link: EV Year In Review: 5 Winners And 5 Losers From The EV Space In 2021

With the chip shortage a major overhang on the auto space and logistical issues globally, the fourth-quarter deliveries were "jaw dropping," the analyst said. The numbers also signal that the EV demand trajectory for Tesla looks robust heading into 2022, he added.

Ives estimates that Tesla may have delivered roughly 200,000 vehicles in December alone. China demand, the analyst said, was a standout in the fourth quarter.

Tesla continues to dominate market share, as evidenced again this quarter while battling through the chip shortage, Ives said. Now, the company is seeing China demand step up big time after facing headwinds earlier in 2021, he added.

Tesla Price Action: Tesla shares closed Friday's session down 1.27% at $1,056.78, although they tacked on 0.55% in after-hours trading.

Related Link: China to Cut EV Subsidies By 30% In 2022: What That Means For Tesla, Nio, XPeng And Others

Photo: Courtesy of tesla.com