Is Ford Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued?

Ford Motor Company F shares have outperformed the S&P 500 in the last year, generating a 12-month total return of 174.4%.

But after a huge run, investors may be wondering if there’s any value left in Ford stock.

Earnings: A price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is one of the most basic fundamental metrics for gauging a stock’s value. The lower the PE, the higher the value. For comparison, the S&P 500’s PE is at about 30, nearly double its long-term average of 15.9.

Ford’s PE is 30.8, in-line with the S&P 500 average as a whole. Ford's PE ratio is also up 213.4% over the last five years, suggesting the stock is priced at the high end of its historical valuation range.

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Growth: Looking ahead to the next four quarters, the S&P 500’s forward PE ratio looks much more reasonable at just 21.3. Ford’s forward earnings multiple of 10.9 is roughly half the S&P 500’s, making Ford's stock look undervalued.

Ford’s forward PE ratio is also about a third of its consumer discretionary sector peers, which are averaging a 31.1 forward earnings multiple.

Yet when it comes to evaluating a stock, earnings aren't everything.

The growth rate is also critical for companies that are rapidly building their bottom lines. The price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) is a good way to incorporate growth rates into the evaluation process. The S&P 500’s overall PEG is currently about 1.0; Ford’s PEG is 0.4, suggesting Ford is significantly undervalued after accounting for its growth.

Price-to-sales ratio is another important valuation metric, particularly for unprofitable companies and growth stocks. The S&P 500’s PS ratio is currently 3.27, well above its long-term average of 1.63. Ford’s PS ratio is a miniscule 0.64, less than a fifth of the S&P 500 average as a whole.

Finally, Wall Street analysts see no value in Ford stock over the next 12 months. The average analyst price target among the 19 analysts covering Ford is $20.50, suggesting 15.5% downside from current levels.

The Verdict: At its current price, Ford stock appears to be fairly valued based on a sampling of common fundamental valuation metrics.

Photo courtesy of Ford.