Ollie's Bargain Outlet Down After Q4 Results Miss Revenue Estimate, Weak Margins; Provides FY22 Guidance

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  • Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc OLLI reported a fourth-quarter sales decline of 2.8% year-over-year to $501.1 million, missing the consensus of $513.13 million.
  • Comparable store sales decreased 10.5% from the prior year's increase of 8.8%. Comparable store sales decreased 2% compared with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019.
  • OLLI opened five new stores, ending the quarter with 431 stores in 29 states.
  • The gross margin declined by 320 bps to 36.5% due to increased supply chain costs.
  • Adjusted operating income decreased 32.1% Y/Y to $57.3 million and adjusted operating margin contracted by 500 bps to 11.4%.
  • Adjusted EPS was $0.69 compared to $0.97 in 4Q20, beating the consensus of $0.66.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 28.2% Y/Y to $66.1 million, and the margin contracted 470 bps to 13.2%.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities for FY21 was $45.03 million, compared to $361.25 million in FY20. Ollie's cash and cash equivalents balance as of FY21 was $247 million.
  • Inventories as of the end of FY21 increased 32.1% to $467.3 million.
  • 1Q22 Outlook: OLLI sees total sales of $417 million to $422 million and Adjusted EPS of $0.31 to $0.33.
  • It expects comparable store sales to range from down 15% to down 14%, a Gross margin of ~35.8%, and Operating income of $26.5 million to $28.0 million.
  • FY22 Outlook: OLLI expects net sales of $1.908 billion to $1.926 billion, versus a consensus of $1.76 billion, and Adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.22, versus a consensus of $2.33.
  • It expects comparable-store sales ranging from flat to an increase of 1%; and opening of 46 to 48 new stores, including two relocations.
  • The company sees a gross margin of ~37.2%, Operating income of $182 million to $187 million, and Capital expenditures of $53 million to $58 million.
  • Price Action: OLLI shares are trading lower by 2.02% at $39.85 during the post-market session on Wednesday.
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