Looking at Social Media Chatter Around Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

This week Social Market Analytics (SMA) takes a look at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters GMCR, a specialty coffee roaster and maker of the Keurig single-serve brewing system. The market environment during the week of July 2 was pessimistic, with the S&P 500 index off 0.9% for the week, closing down 12.9 points on July 6 in reaction to economic data that showed sluggish job growth in June. Green Mountain's stock moved contrary to broader market trends, trading as much as 20% higher during the week and closing on July 6 above its 50-day moving average on high volume. Green Mountain is a volatile stock with an active social media signature, covered twice previously on SMA's weekly focus, first in March after major product announcements from a possible competitor and again in May after a negative earnings report. Overall, Green Mountain is down about 45% for the year, with high short interest, but may have formed a bottom as commentary emerged suggesting that Green Mountain may now be a buying opportunity. As the week progressed, SMA's metrics provided initial indication and later confirmation of positive market sentiment developing. Starting on June 29, SMA's S-Score for Green Mountain moved firmly into positive territory, reaching 1.3 (Positive) in the pre-market of July 2, with the stock opening at $21.73 to begin the week. The stock gapped up at the open of July 3 to close at $22.48, a gain of 5.05% for the day. On the July 4 holiday, Green Mountain's S-Score was 1.28 (Positive) indicating continuing positive social media sentiment. The behavior of SMA's S-Score measures market trading sentiment and can provide actionable signals for upcoming price movement. In the pre-market of July 5, Green Mountain's S-Score dipped into neutral territory on low S-Volume, but this is typical behavior for many stocks on the first trading day after a holiday. The stock closed at $23.53 for a gain of 4.67%. On July 6, GMCR's S-Score moved sharply higher to 2.08 (High Positive), coincident with a spike up in S-Volume indicating unusual, active social media content. GMCR closed trading that day at $24.50, an additional gain of 4.12%, capping a sustained, week-long rally. Social Media data are noisy and complex. A single metric is insufficient to understand sentiment behavior over time. Our S-Factors are a family of metrics, including volatility, trend and volume measures, designed to provide a complete view of social media signature for each security tracked in SMA's databases. SMA's processing engine continuously updates our S-Factors, capturing overnight and pre-market sentiment activities. Clients receive sentiment reports prior to the U.S. market open and intra-day sentiment estimates for tracked stocks, on-demand. SMA invites the reader to visit the website; investigate the market sentiment metrics for Green Mountain and other stocks, industry sectors, and market indices; participate in the FAQ forum; and sign up for the Flash Report and Newsletter.