Bitcoin Hits $21300 — Is The Bear Market Over?

Bitcoin BTC/USD hit $21,300 after dipping to $17,100, its lowest 18-month point for the 4th time in the same month. The $4,000 surge over the weekend has brought BTC back above its support level at $20,000 similar to its $30,000 level, which maintained its strength for a few months before tumbling to the bottom.

As market analysts forecast the cryptocurrency’s near-future trend, Leah Wald, CEO at Valkyrie Investments told CNBC that the bear market hasn’t ended yet. Most corporates, institutions and sovereigns have bought into the support levels of $20,000 and “these market participants” would make sure “their trades are not going underwater,” Wald said.

This would explain the support and short-term trend reversal Bitcoin currently faces. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.

With the ongoing DeFi contagion, starting with Celsius network's 50% crash, Three Arrows Capital’s liquidation by counterparties, and just-in Solana’s top project compromising on decentralization over liquidation have increased the ramifications of the bear market. 

Data from Glassnode show the current Realized Losses have reached a new all-time-high as the crypto market-wide losses amounted to $7.3 billion in the last few days making it the largest USD-denominated Realized Loss in Bitcoin history.

(Source: Glassnode)

Since losses are being realized, the market has bounced in a reversal, as crypto analysts believe the bears are stalling for now with multiple resistance to clear with a possible pullback.

Pseudonymous crypto analyst CryptoCapo also believes that the bottom hasn’t been met yet as final phase of capitulation lies ahead. 

The $30k support was very similar to the $6k support in 2018. Once it broke, capitulation phase started, but if we compare both we can clearly see that it's not over yet.
Funding rates also validate this. pic.twitter.com/QQ2Vs7GhF9

— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) June 21, 2022

Stagnating balance of Bitcoin miners from 2019-2021 accumulation uptrend, and reverse into the ongoing decline has created immense pressure. Glassnode data indicate that miners spent around 9000 bitcoins from their treasuries last week. Hashrate has also fallen 10% off the all-time high with a 5% decline in BTC miner reserves in the past 24 hours. 

As the general economy is speculated to head towards a recession; the bear market still hovers despite the 24-hour recovery chart flowing in green. At the time of press, Bitcoin traded at $21,322, up by 5.7%. Its market cap is at $402 billion and trading volume at $34 billion, down by 9.8% in the past 24 hours.