Analyst Says Tesla's 'Growth Story Is Misunderstood': How It Compares With Legacy Automakers

Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA June quarter deliveries showed a 27% year-over-year increase, in line with expectations but slower than the 68% growth seen in the first quarter. The slowdown was due to a 22-day shutdown of the company's Giga Shanghai plant.

Numbers Mislead: The larger impact of China production has been misunderstood, Loup Fund's Managing Partner Gene Munster said in a note.

"Tesla's growth and competitive lead appear to be increasing," the analyst said.

Ahead of the shutdown, Tesla was producing about 60,000 to 70,000 cars per month in China, the analyst said, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association. CPCA estimates put Tesla's production at 11,000 cars in April, 34,000 cars in May, totaling 45,000 units during the shutdown as opposed to the 130,000 units it would have normally produced during these two months, he added.

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The 22-day shutdowns slowed production by 85,000 units, the analyst said. If all lost China production had been converted into deliveries, overall June deliveries would have been 340,000 units, up 69% and essentially in line with the 68% delivery growth in the first quarter, he said.

Tesla Outgrows Legacy Pack: Tesla's 69% adjusted delivery growth suggests it has outpaced the U.S. auto industry, Munster said. Production rates of eight other auto companies showed that their U.S. deliveries were down 22% in the June quarter, he noted.

"Essentially, Tesla outpaced other automakers by 91% in June, compared to 75% in March and 90% in December of 2021," the analyst said.

Tesla closed Friday's session up 2.54% at $752.29, according to Benzinga Pro data.