Needham Remains Bullish On UK-Based MedTech Stock Citing Upcoming Catalyst

LivaNova PLC LIVN could provide an update on its RECOVER difficult-to-treat depression (DTD) trial within the next few months, representing a significant catalyst.
Unipolar enrollment in the trial is approaching 325-350 patients, which management has indicated is the "sweet spot" where the trial could meet its endpoint.
Needham believes that LIVN shares could increase by ~25-35% from ~$60 to ~$75-80 immediately after a positive disclosure and continue to increase in the following weeks.
But the negative outcome could immediately drag the shares by ~10-20% from ~$60 to ~$50-55.
LIVN expects to transition from the trial phase to the registry phase in late 2022 or early 2023, allowing a significant increase in the volume of DTD procedures since up to 5,800 patients are allowed in the registry under the RECOVER trial design.
The full data from the RECOVER trial will not be available until all patients reach 12 months of follow-up, likely in 2H of 2023.
The company expects CMS to issue an updated national coverage determination for DTD in 2H of 2024.
Price Action: LIVN shares are up 1.29% at $61.38 during the market session on the last check Monday.