Why This Alcoa Analyst Is Turning Bullish In Uncertain Macro Environment

Alcoa Corp AA is poised to generate significant free cash flows in the coming years, given the constructive outlook for aluminum, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Alcoa Analyst: Carlos De Alba upgrade the rating for Alcoa from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raised the price target from $51 to $66.

The Alcoa Takeaways: While the company’s results could remain under pressure in the back half of 2022, mainly due to lower commodity prices and higher costs, “we believe the market will see through these near term headwinds, De Alba said in the upgrade note.

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Aluminum spot prices are at a level that has “historically provided a floor,” and when compared to other commodities, “aluminum has more support from the cost curve and prices should be well supported at this level,” the analyst stated.

Structural changes in China could also support aluminum prices, De Alba mentioned.

“If power shortages in China become a persistent issue this may put additional pressure on the Chinese smelting industry to cut production, in our view, reducing aluminum exports out of China,” he explained.

AA Price Action: Shares of Alcoa were down 2.94% Friday afternoon at $41.88.