First Solar Is Fair Priced Despite Logistical Snarls Hitting Q3, Analysts Say

FSLR reported 3Q results that continued to be impacted by shipping headwinds and $30 million in unexpected logistics charges. 

KeyBanc analyst Sophie Karp maintained an Overweight on First Solar, Inc FSLR with a $145 price target. Near-term challenges should decrease in time, and she thinks a healthy pace of bookings combined with ASP upside should outweigh ST issues. 

As the only producer with a meaningful scale in the U.S., its thin-film technology eliminates a lot of the volatility and regulatory uncertainty embedded in cSi manufacturing. The Company will likely continue outperforming its peers. 

Despite a challenging quarter, Karp believes FSLR remains uniquely positioned in the space to benefit from domestic content requirements included in the IRA. 

Needham analyst Vikram Bagri reiterated a Hold on First Solar. FSLR missed revenue and profitability expectations by a wide margin and cut 2022 guidance. 

FSLR is now fully sold-out through 2025 and anticipates selling out through 2026 by YE, excluding India. The business is seeing impressive order and pricing momentum with new order ASP ~15% higher than the current realization. 

$1.5 billion in planned investments will enable higher capture of IRA benefits and give FSLR a better shot at earning $700 million in potential revenues from tech adders. 

Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov reiterated a Market Perform on First Solar. After gaining 51% year-to-date versus the ECO index, down 37%, First Solar has become among the most crowded trades in clean tech.  

This should be seen in the context of the forthcoming production uplift in Ohio, and fab startups in India will also contribute. As the new capacity ramps up, there will be an elevated risk of top-line and (especially) margin shortfalls. 

More broadly, the story is also inextricably tied to protectionism in the U.S. As a play on manufacturing in the PV value chain, he suggests looking at FTC Solar. 

UBS analyst Jon Windham maintained First Solar with a Neutral and raised the price target from $76 to $140. 

Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman upgraded First Solar from Peer Perform to Outperform with a $170 price target.

Price Action: FSLR shares traded higher by 1.59% at $133.36 on the last check Friday.