US 'Globalization' Approach May Have Enabled A 'Stronger, More Threatening' China — But Patrick Chovanec Says There's More To It

Patrick Chovanec, an economic adviser at Silvercrest Asset Management, believes one of the hardest things to convey and to accept, in policymaking is there are no purely right or purely wrong solutions to most problems, but only trade-offs.

He explained how failing to recognize success, and taking it for granted, can distort perceptions just as badly, and lead to learning the wrong lessons. The expert cited the example of constructive U.S. economic engagement stating how its critique looked at a stronger China as the outcome of the step.

“But the very same approach also facilitated robust allies around the world, including Japan, S Korea, and Singapore,” he tweeted.

1. The critique of constructive US economic engagement (aka “globalization”) is that it enabled a stronger, more threatening China. But the very same approach also facilitated robust allies around the world, including Japan, S Korea, and Singapore.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 14, 2022

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Vietnam War: “The critique of the Vietnam War was that active US intervention was doomed to fail and cost blood and treasure. Yet similar commitments largely staved off Soviet influence in Greece, S Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, across Latin America, and the Middle East,” he said.

Chovanec also cited the example of "U.S.’ War [on] Terror" – something that is largely seen as a failure because of costly and futile commitments to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan long-term. “Yet, the U.S. has not been the target of a comparable terrorist attack since 9/11, which was by no means a given,” he said.

8. One of the hardest things to convey, and to accept, in policymaking is that there are not purely right or purely wrong solutions to most problems, only tradeoffs, and at times tradeoffs conditioned by great uncertainty, i.e. educated bets.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 14, 2022

The expert believes one thing that frequently happens is that by solving one problem, other problems are created. “True enough, but it is easy to forget what the origin problem was, and why the solution still made sense even though it led to new ones,” he said.

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