Recession Threat Imminent? Analyst 'Skeptical,' Highlights This Data

The Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation fighting has prompted many market watchers and analysts to call for a recession.

What Happened: A recession, however, is less likely, according to Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Group.

“Few things are more certain than everyone is saying a recession will take place next year,” the analyst noted. Detrick said he is “much more skeptical” of a looming recession, premising his view on robust consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the GDP.

The analyst also highlighted one data point that precludes a recession or makes it less likely. Of the 13 recessions since WWII, not a single one started in a pre-election year, he added.

The U.S. goes to the next presidential poll in 2024, with former President Donald Trump having already thrown his hat into the ring.

Few things are more certain than everyone is saying a recession will take place next year.

I'm much more skeptical given how strong the consumer has been (70% of GDP).

Also, note that there have been 13 recessions since WWII and not a single one started in a pre-election year. pic.twitter.com/Of1H8Gj8rg

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 22, 2022

See Also: Get Ready: 'Recession Very Likely' According To BofA's 2023 Market Outlook

Why It’s Important: Detrick’s view was echoed by investment bank Goldman Sachs last week in a note to clients. Researchers from the firm said a U.S. recession is less likely than the median forecaster does. As opposed to the 35% chance Goldman is modeling, it sees the median forecast of Wall Street experts at 65%.

JPMorgan reportedly said that it sees a recession in 2023, although a mild one. Peer BofA Securities said, citing a survey by fund managers, that 77% believe a global recession is on the cards.

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