Tesla's Recent Pullback Evened Out Risk-Reward, Analyst Says While Upgrading Stock

  • Citi analyst Itay Michaeli upgraded Tesla Inc TSLA to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $176, up from $141.33
  • Michaeli said the share's year-to-date pullback has "balanced out" the near-term risk and reward.
  • With the multiple contracting to ~30x 2023E EPS, some of the prior baked-in expectations Michaeli disagreed with were out of stock. 
  • Though the latest model update led him to reduce near-term EPS estimates, Michaeli still finds himself slightly above consensus for Q4-2024E EPS. 
  • While macro and competitive concerns would likely remain an overhang with capacity rising, Michaeli reiterated how Tesla's long-term competitive position in a challenging landing scenario probably improves and is potentially further enhanced by IRA. 
  • The price target boost ascribes a modestly higher multiple to reflect these advantages.
  • Price Action: TSLA shares traded higher by 5.28% at $178.88 on the last check Wednesday.
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