This Historical Trend Debunks Predictions For Weak First Half Of 2023: Analyst

The financial markets were in the doldrums for 2022, with every asset class experiencing sell-offs amid the macro challenges.

One analyst, however, expects better times ahead.

What Happened: Everyone expects the first half of 2023 to be bad for stocks, Carson Group's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick says, referring to all of the recession predictions in recent months.

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The economy has yet to reflect the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve’s successive rate hikes. To make matters worse, geopolitical risks continue to weigh down on the global economy.

Detrick, however, noted that the first quarter in a pre-election year was lower only once since 1950. That means, in 17 of the 18 instances, the market clocked a gain for the quarter.

"I've done this for more than two decades," he says. "Rarely have I ever seen everyone agree on something like everyone expects the first half of '23 to be bad for stocks."

Santa Is Here: The official “Santa Claus rally” period starts Friday and the market has been higher over the seven sessions in the run-up to the year-end, six years in a row, Detrick said in a separate tweet.

Since the 1970s, the streak hasn’t progressed to seven years, he said. The longest ever was ten in a row in the 1950s/60s, he added.

I've done this for more than two decades.
Rarely have I ever seen everyone agree on something like everyone expects the first half of '23 to be bad for stocks.
Haven't heard many point out the first quarter in a pre-election year was lower only once since 1950 (up 17 of 18). pic.twitter.com/Kq9oUyOtgX

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 21, 2022

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the broader S&P 500 Index, is down 17.4% for the year-to-date period. Some heavily-weighted S&P 500 stocks, including Apple, Inc. AAPL, Amazon, Inc. AMZN and Alphabet, Inc. GOOGL GOOG have all chalked up huge losses this year.

Wednesday, the SPY climbed 1.50% before ending at $386.23, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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