BioMarin's Growth Prospects Soar with Potential Voxzogo and Roctavian Launches, Analyst Raises Price Target

Wedbush has increased the price target on BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc BMRN from $74 to $84 while reiterating the Neutral rating.
BioMarin reported three-year Phase 3 GENEr8-1 results for ROCTAVIAN/HemA that were in line with expectations as 92% of study participants remained prophylaxis free at the end of 3yr along with encouraging safety likely to assuage regulators' concerns.
With the upcoming PDUFA of 31 March, the analyst says that the focus shifts to the commercial opportunity, where it remains conservative based on KOL checks compared with Management's optimistic revenue projections of $4-$5 billion by mid-decade, half of which is expected to come from VOXZOGO and ROCTAVIAN.
The analyst writes that it is impressed by VOXZOGO's growth to date, and continues to monitor the trajectory over the next year better to support the implied level of growth by the company.
For ROCTAVIAN, even considering a ~7% peak penetration of the 13K addressable market (850-900 patients) would result in $1.8 billion, which is more doable in 2030 than around mid-decade.
Wedbush also points to the well-served HemA market, the limited EU label. Conversations with KOLs who foresee single-digit percent penetration and an EU launch progressing slower than expected with patients yet to be dosed.
Price Action: BMRN shares are trading 0.58% lower at $110.75 on the last check Wednesday.

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