Here's Why This Analyst Seems Highly Convinced With Evolus' Outlook

Evolus Inc EOLS issued fourth-quarter 2022 and full-year 2022 revenues of $43.6 million, up 26% Y/Y and approximately $148.6 million, up 49%, respectively.
Additionally, the company issued revenue guidance for the full-year 2023 of $180 million - $190 million and expects non-GAAP operating income to be positive in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The company has set a 2028 revenue target of $500 million, a 22% CAGR.
With a Buy rating, Mizuho has raised the price target from $15 to $17.
The analyst writes that some investors question the feasibility of Evolus' 2028 outlook, given the uncertain macroeconomic environment and particularly the launch of Revance Therapeutics Inc's RVNC Daxxify that started strong.
Management believes its 2028 revenue outlook for its global neurotoxin business is conservative and comfortable as it sees multiple paths to achieve and potentially exceed it.
The analyst notes that the 2028 revenue outlook factors in the competitive environment but has not considered potential contributions from the Jeuveau "extra-strength" formulation or revenue synergy from business development.
While Mizuho finds the company's explanation credible, it chooses to remain more conservative and forecast 2028 revenue of $464 million (vs. the prior $435 million).
Price Action: EOLS shares are up 4.90% at $10.48 on the last check Thursday.