Businesses See Lower Likelihood Of US Recession But Remain Wary Of Higher Interest Rates, Costs: Survey

Survey members polled by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) have reportedly indicated the likelihood the United States is already in recession or will fall into one this year has declined over the past three months to 56% from about two-thirds possibility.

“Respondents report the biggest downside risks to their outlooks are higher interest rates and costs, while the biggest potential upside risks are lower interest rates and costs, as well as increased labor force participation and improved supply chains,” NABE said in a release.

Also Read: Investing In Exchange Traded Funds: A Beginner's Guide

Approximately 53% of those polled stated they had a more than-even expectation the US would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% believed they thought the country was already in one, reported Reuters.

In a previous poll conducted by NABE which was released in October, 64% of respondents indicated the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one over the next 12 months, according to the Reuters report.

A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or industry trade associations responded to the latest survey, which was done from Jan. 4-11, the report added.

Inflation: The poll also showed respondents anticipated inflation to decline within their companies and industries, with a forward-looking gauge for prices charged falling by 10 percentage points since the last survey. 

“For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months. Fewer respondents than in recent years expect their firms' capital spending to increase in the same period,” the release said.

Read Next: US Lawmakers Eye Replacing Fixed Dollar Debt Ceiling With Percentage Of Economic Output