Fiverr Analysts Boost Price Targets Expecting Cohorts And Macro To Stabilize In 2023

Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintained Fiverr International Ltd FVRR with a Buy and raised the price target from $40 to $50.
The new target reflected a higher 2023 adjusted EBITDA estimate and a higher target multiple following the Q4 results.
FY23 guidance surprised to the upside, expecting accelerating revenue growth throughout the year and delivering >100% incremental margins, pulling forward the longer-term targets.
In FY24E, the analyst assumed FVRR could accelerate revenue by>20% while continuing to expand margins implying the macro moved from neutral and a headwind to a tailwind.
RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson maintained a Sector Perform and raised the price target from $33 to $40.
FVRR's print was somewhat mixed, but a robust FY23 EBITDA guide-up appeared well-received by investors.
Positively, FY23 estimates look somewhat de-risked, marketing expense discipline continues to improve, and maybe ChatGPT is not a headwind after all.
Citigroup analyst Ronald Josey maintained a Buy and raised the price target from $45 to $58.
The Q4 results impressed the analyst with stabilizing topline trends (despite limited visibility). He expected EBITDA margins to double to 14.5% in FY23 as the marketplace focused on improved efficiency while investing in growth.
While the analyst watched the broader macro environment and noted newer cohort spending below historical levels due to macro, he believed the marketplace should see growing demand ahead of a broader recovery, with more unique products as margins expand materially.
JMP Securities analyst Andrew Boone maintained a Market Perform and raised the price target from $50 to $55, with Q1 an inflection point for financials.
The analyst believed there is an end in sight to macro headwinds and that cohorts are likely to stabilize in 2023, while 2022 new client revenue was up 8% Y/Y, although the macro results are likely to improve from here.
Boone believed 2023 guidance implies further retention headwinds and saw a likely upside to profitability.
While the analyst acknowledged shares were up 56% YTD, he believed there is a path back to 20% growth, and with increased cost discipline and marketing efficiency, Fiverr could be a "rule of 40" company by 2025.
Guidance for 2023 looked conservative as cohorts reset through 2022, and Project Partner and new 3P distribution represented catalysts for 2023.
Price Action: FVRR shares are trading lower by 7.37% at $41.58 on the last check Thursday.

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