The Bull And Bear Case For Apple: Expert Analysis

Needham & Co on Friday issued a company update to investors discussing its Bull and Bear cases for Apple Inc AAPL.

The Bull case: New subscription business model, new advertising revenue stream, China coming out of lockdowns, 5G replacement cycle, the installed base of over one billion wealthy consumers, rising lifetime values (LTVs), and strong near-term free cash flow.

The Bear case: Potential risks include year-over-year revenue decline in 2023, macro weakness, potential supply chain shortages, longer hardware replacement cycles, slowing services year-over-year growth, and weak China production and/or demand.

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The Needham Analyst: Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating on Apple, with a $170 price target.

Needham’s note argues that the best way to assess Apple’s valuation, pricing power, competitive advantage period, and barriers to entry is through the lens of the one billion consumers who use Apple devices four to five hours per day.

Martin suggested that Apple is adding new products and services that drive stickiness and ecosystem lock-in, such as add-on hardware products like tablets, and watches, and add-on services like Apple Music, and AppleTV+.

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The analyst said lower-priced new iPhones, financing options, and old iPhone trade-in discounts are also seen as lowering the entry barrier to the company’s ecosystem.

The Bull case for Apple is supported by two key assumptions: Focusing on maximizing revenue per iOS home, which lowers customer acquisition costs, minimizes churn, and drives LTV upside, and the belief that secondary hardware products and services create incremental lower-priced on-ramps into its ecosystem.

The Bear case assumptions center around Covid-related risks to consumer demand and global economic growth, potential China political backlash that could negatively impact 20% of the company’s annual sales and nearly all of its production capacity, chip shortages, and supply chain disruptions.

Despite the assumed risks, Martin remains bullish about Apple’s subscription revenue valuation multiple upsides and the opportunity to sell CTV ad units in its Apple TV streaming content.

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