Autodesk's Business Resiliency, Growing TAM Backs Rule of 45+, Bullish Analyst Says

Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong had an Outperform rating on Autodesk, Inc ADSK with a $220 price target.
Autodesk reaffirmed its FY24 outlook and provided investors context to support the long-term Rule of a 45+ operating model (10–15% growth and 35%+ margins).
CEO Andrew Anagnost highlighted the interconnectivity of platforms, end markets, diverse business models, and data as enablers of Autodesk's growth strategy.
Management updated the long-term TAM from $78 billion to $100 billion, powered by the convergence of AEC, Manufacturing, and M&E.
Management deconstructed the components of Autodesk's long-term growth (10–15%) into three buckets.
Some investors worry that the sum of the lower ends of growth ranges suggests sub-double digits as a possibility, which management characterized as "rounding" while reemphasizing 10–15%.
CFO Debbie Clifford highlighted balanced growth and optimizing the capital structure as pillars to deliver long-term shareholder value.
Clifford called higher taxes the primary delta for the step down from Autodesk's prior status as a Rule of 55+ company. Management also indicated that long-term operating margins are biased toward the 38–40% lower end.
COO Steve Blum indicated that partner compensation would shift entirely to the back end, and flex-based sales would move in-house, potentially boosting long-term margins at the expense of some near-term disruption.
Autodesk has a notable lead in cloud-based design tools with its 360 line, specifically Fusion. Fusion provides customers with compelling value while offering to attach opportunities that can push ARPU above $5K. Autodesk has seen monetization (70% 5-yr CAGR) meaningfully outpace subscriber growth (40% CAGR).
Price Action: ADSK shares traded higher by 1.82% at $202.00 on the last check Thursday.

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