While the 2024 U.S. presidential election may seem a long way off, polls to see who is favored by voters and betting odds for the next White House occupant have ramped up.
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for the 2024 presidential race and what the impact of Donald Trump’s indictment could mean.
What Happened: Former President Donald Trump was the first major candidate to officially announce a run for president of the U.S. in the 2024 election.
While President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have not announced their official 2024 campaigns, they continue to be seen as among the three frontrunners with Trump and are expected to announce their candidacy any time.
U.S. residents can’t actively bet with online sportsbooks on who will be the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc DKNG that are live in Ontario offer betting for residents of Canada. Foreign sportsbooks also offer odds and bets.
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds from Bet365 as provided by Covers, with odds from April, along with the previous odds from the month of February 2023 and November 2022.
Joe Biden: +175, +250 (February), +550 (November)
Donald Trump: +250, 350, +330
Ron DeSantis: +350, +300, +225
Kamala Harris: +2500, +1800, +1200
Pete Buttigieg: +3300, +3500, +2500
Nikki Haley: +3500, +2000, +2800
Gavin Newsom: +4000, +2000, +1400
Michelle Obama: +4000, +3500, +3500
Mike Pence: +6000, +3500, +2000
Gretchen Whitmer: +6600, +3500, N/A
Hillary Clinton: +8000, +6500, +5000
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: +10,000, +5000, +4000
Robert Kennedy Jr.: +10,000
Vivek Ramaswamy: +10,000
Related Link: NFL's Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary For 2024 Presidential Election, Fellow Anti-Vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jr
Why It’s Important: The new betting odds for the month of April show President Biden listed as the favorite once again, which comes after the ranked behind both Trump and DeSantis in November.
While Biden has not officially declared his intention to run in the 2024 election, one sports betting analyst saw the odds already pricing this in.
“It’s definitely already priced in, and I don’t see his odds improving much once he formally announces,” Covers sports betting analyst Rohit Ponnaiya told Benzinga. “Despite an up-and-down term and his advanced age, Biden has already said he plans to run for re-election, and it would be chaos for the Democrat party if he chose not to.”
Trump saw his odds improve to +250 after he was listed at +350 in February. The former president has now passed DeSantis as the second favorite to win the 2024 election despite a recent indictment and federal charges.
“The thing about ‘negative headlines’ in this case is that most of these allegations have been following ‘Teflon Don’ for years and haven’t led to any tangible consequences or detracted from his support. In fact, this lends credence to his narrative of ‘witch-hunt’ and could cause his base to rally around him at a time when it looked like DeSantis was threatening his spot in the pecking order. This trial actually puts the spotlight back on him and we’ve seen him thrive in this position before.”
Ponnaiya told Benzinga that the legal case could drag on and make it tough for Trump to deal with the trial and campaigning at the same time.
“If some Republicans see Trump as having too much baggage with his legal problems, they could opt for DeSantis or a more moderate option.”
Similar to Biden announcing being baked into his leading odds, Ponnaiya said the same could be said for DeSantis, who likely wouldn’t move that much on an official announcement.
“The high likelihood that he will announce is baked into his odds so I wouldn’t expect to see much movement.”
Ponnaiya said DeSantis isn’t “afraid of a possible confrontation with Trump.”
On the Democratic side, Ponnaiya sees limited competition for Biden, but several candidates could see their odds improve with an official announcement.
“You might see a decent jump on the odds board from those (Harris, Whitmer, Buttigieg, Obama) candidates if they announced, but they won’t seriously threaten Biden as long as he’s healthy. A sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, so it appears that the Democrat party won’t be changing horses midstream.”
One name that has appeared on the betting odds list is actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, which continues a trend of celebrities being listed with odds for president.
“This isn’t anywhere near a serious bet, especially after he practically ruled out a 2024 run last October and has seen his odds dip from a high of +4,000. It’s tough at this point in the election cycle for a political outsider to throw their hat in the ring. That said, if you want a longshot, you can find a more likely presidential candidate at a better payout.”
Despite announcing official candidacy, Robert Kennedy Jr. and former Roivant Sciences Ltd. ROIV CEO Vivek Ramaswamy find themselves with odds of +10,000 to win the election.
“Books seem to have a standard for candidates on the periphery, usually with them sitting at about 10,000. When those candidates either increase their national profile or money comes in on them those number will be tweaked, which we saw with DeSantis who was sitting at +6,600 just two years ago.”
Ponnaiya commented at the huge gap between the top three candidates and the next leading contenders with this: “DeSantis is under a lot more scrutiny than he was during the honeymoon phase of his tenure as governor and the fallout of Trump’s legal situation could create an opportunity for another Republican to surge up the odds board. Especially with Trump and DeSantis likely to split the MAGA base of the Republican party.”
While political betting is banned in the U.S., Ponnaiya sees this potentially changing in the future.
“There’s been a stigma against sports betting for a long time, now imagine that stigma extending into the most hallowed of U.S. institutions: democracy.”
West Virginia briefly allowed betting in the last election cycle according to Ponnaiya, before the state pulled the betting within 24 hours.
“As sports betting becomes more socially accepted across the U.S, I think that mindset will slowly change when it comes to politics as well, especially with the potential cash cow that is election betting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see books offering odds by 2028 — albeit with strict regulations and limits in place.”
For more on the sports betting landscape and what could be next for popular betting segments and legislation, tune in to the Benzinga Sports Betting Titans virtual event on May 24.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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