Fed's Bullard Hawkish Remarks Strengthen May 25bps Rate Hike, Investors Abandon July Cut Expectations

Zinger Key Points
  • St. Louis Fed Chair Bullard reiterated calls for a higher-for-longer interest rates.
  • U.S. recession estimates ignore labor market strength, the policymaker said.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, delivered hawkish remarks in an exclusive interview with Reuters on Tuesday, saying that interest rates should rise to 5.5-5.75% range.

Here are the main takeaways from Bullard's interview:

  • Bullard continues to envision a sufficiently tight policy rate in the 5.50%-5.75% range.
  • Interest rates must continue to climb since there hasn't been any noticeable progress on inflation.
  • Bullard said he felt "the bias would be higher for longer" to get inflation fully under control.
  • Forecasts for a U.S. economic recession neglect labor market strength, and pandemic savings must still be utilized.
  • The likelihood of widespread bank stress appears to have diminished, but officials are keeping a close watch on the situation.
  • At the next meeting, the Fed should avoid providing significant forward guidance and instead keep alternatives open.

Also Read: The Unraveling Of The Greenback: Is The US Dollar's Reign Nearing Its End As It Teeters On The Edge Of A Jaw-Dropping Fall To 100?

Market Reactions:

Fed futures contracts presently assign an 88% probability for a 25-basis-point hike at the FOMC meeting in May, according to the CME Group Fedwatch Tool. 

A rate rise to 5.25-5.5% in June is presently priced in at a 23% chance, while a rate hold at 5-5.25% is priced at a 67% probability.

Rate cut bets for the July FOMC meeting have been further reduced, with speculators now assigning just a 25% chance of the fed funds rate reversing to its present range of 4.75-5%, and a 3% chance of a drop to 4.5-4.75%.

U.S. two-year Treasury yields held steady at 4.18% after surging 22 basis points in the last two sessions. 

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT rose 0.33% on the day, after falling 2.4% in the past five sessions. 

Read Next: Goldman Sachs Clocks Mixed Q1 Performance, Investment Banking Falls 26%, Sees Net Gain In Credit Losses Provision

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Posted In: NewsTreasuriesEconomicsFederal ReserveJames BullardJim Bullard
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