Analyst Is Cautious Citing Stericycle's Execution Risk And Premium Valuation Despite Intriguing Prospects

Truist Securities analyst Tobey Sommer initiates Stericycle, Inc. SRCL coverage with a Hold rating and a $45 price target.
The analyst expects the medical waste disposal firm to gain from improved operating performance and margin expansion, but a relatively expensive valuation might offset these.
Encouraging prospects for mid-teens EBITDA growth (13%-17%) and improving cash conversion beyond 2023 is like to boost the company's growth.
Conversely, Tobey notes that Stericycle has been bearing the brunt of excessive leverage and outdated internal systems recently.
However, new management, which joined the company in mid-2019, began simplifying the bloated portfolio, cutting costs, and implementing unified IT systems.
The analyst notes that this effort should be nearing completion by the end of 2023, providing investors clarity into the underlying economics of the core business.
Truist Securities models a 1.5% growth rate for 2023 and 4% for 2024. This assumes 3.4% and 3.9% organic growth, respectively.
Among others, growth in 2023 will come from 1% growth in NA regulated waste, 2.3% in NA secure information destruction. However, 1.8% contraction in the international business is estimated, coupled with 1.4% decrease in revenues from net divestitures and 0.3% currency headwind.
Truist Securities expects network expansion to be a key driver of volume growth.
Price Action: SRCL shares are trading lower by 2.36% at $41.90 on the last check Tuesday.