Attention Investors! Buy Mobileye At Current Levels, Analysts Say Post Q1 Results Snubbing Softness In Chinese EV Demand

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill maintains Mobileye Global Inc MBLY with a Buy and lowers the price target from $45 to $43.

The re-rating reflects a solid 1Q23 but a cut in its annual revenue outlook by 6%, citing lower supervision sales from its primary Chinese customer, Zeeker, the analyst writes in a Friday note titled "Stock Was Priced to Perfection; Temporarily Affected By Soft Chinese EV Demand." 

The stock was down 20%+ following the print. Gill finds the stock priced to perfection, having more than doubled since its IPO in late November and +31% YTD (vs. +8% for the S&P 500).

The analyst found that SuperVision revenue declined due to a unit reduction by a single Zeeker 001 model (not market share loss), given Tesla Inc's TSLA price cuts and weak demand for EVs in China.

MBLY is seeing signs that Zeeker demand is returning to 4Q22 levels, the analyst highlights. It is adding the Polestar 4 and "European OEM" EV models, ramping in 2024/2025, another significant milestone the analyst flags.

Customers are upgrading to cloud-enhanced with REM that double ASPs. Net, the analyst, is a Buyer at these levels, given the attractive entry point and long-term positioning in ADAS.

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan had an Outperform rating with a price target of $42.00, down from $44.00. Narayan reminds folks that the SuperVision schedule includes diversification outside of China and with large new OEMs and that China issues have nothing to do with the company's product offering. 

The analyst believes shares as oversold, given his expectation that China's demand will recover, in a Friday note titled "OEM Concentration Fears Overblown; Buy on Weakness."

Given limited float (Intel Inc INTC still owns 90%+ of shares), and tech-focused investors in the name, volatility is likely. Finally, the analyst expects diversification of SuperVision launches to lessen investor fears.

Price Action: MBLY shares traded higher by 3.42% at $37.38 on the last check Friday.