This Analyst Likes Evolus As 'Top Play In Aesthetics'

Evolus Inc EOLS will be the exclusive U.S. distributor for five dermal fillers currently in late-stage development from Symatese, a French regenerative medical solutions company.

The addition expands the company's total addressable U.S. market by 70% by adding a $1.6 billion U.S. filler market opportunity to the existing $2.3 billion aesthetic neurotoxin market. Both markets are expected to nearly double by 2028. 

The company has raised its 2028 revenue outlook to $700 million, with revenue expectation for the organic growth of Jeuveau to $500 million remaining unchanged. 

Evolus will pay Symatese €16.2 million, including an upfront payment of €4.1 million and €12.1 million of additional payments beginning in June 2025. 

The companies will share expenses related to the registration process for the two planned product launches in 2027. The initial term is of 15 years, with automatic five-year renewal provisions.

Evolus reported Q1 sales of $41.7 million, up 23%, beating the consensus of $40.69 million, driven primarily by higher volumes of Jeuveau and a modestly higher average selling price.

Evolus expects FY23 sales of $180-$190 million, compared to the consensus of $186.82 million.

Cantor Fitzgerald says Jeuveau's/Nuceiva's value proposition is under-appreciated and that the products can pick up a meaningful share in the fast-growing and highly under-penetrated market.

Some competitors, including AbbVie Inc's ABBV Botox, Merz's (private) Xeomin, and Ipsen/Galderma's Dysport, have larger sales forces and marketing budgets than Evolus. 

Dysport and Xeomin are different from Botox, while Jeuveau is the same, making the switch to or new start on Jeuveau easier than for Xeomin or Dysport.

The analyst reiterates the Overweight rating, with a price target of $20.

Price Action: EOLS shares are up 18.10% at $10.71 on the last check Wednesday.