Tesla Up 40% Since Late-April Lows: Analyst Outlines 4 Factors That Can Keep Stock Turbocharged

Tesla, Inc. TSLA shares have been on a tear in recent sessions and an analyst weighed in on what would keep the stock ticking up.

What Happened: For Tesla’s stock to go higher, the electric vehicle maker's volumes have to grow by more than 39% in 2023 and more than 27% in 2024, which is the current Wall Street consensus, said fund manager Gary Black in a tweet. The other positive influences the Tesla bull mentioned include:

• 22% Compounded annual growth rate of volume between 2023 and 2027
• Stable ASPs
• Gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, rising

"Any combo of global EV adoption, $TSLA EV share, or overall TSLA share growth above this level of [delivery] growth will be viewed positively," the fund manager said.

I will try to put this to bed once and for all.

Analysts have been using global EV adoption and TSLA EV segment share to forecast future TSLA volumes FOR YEARS. TSLA volumes have to grow faster than 39% in 2023 and 27% in 2024 (WS consensus) for $TSLA stock to go up. Any combo… https://t.co/65SYie7vix pic.twitter.com/Z5DDME4Vgp

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 4, 2023

See Also: Everything You Need To Know About Tesla Stock

2-Variable Forecasting: Black noted that analysts have been using global EV adoption and Tesla's EV segment share to predict future volumes for years.

"Any combo of EV adoption and TSLA EV share that delivers that level of vol growth or higher is positive for $TSLA stock," he said.

Using two variables for forecasting rather than one is generally accurate, Black said. He noted that Apple investors have been forecasting smartphone adoption and the company's smartphone share for years to predict iPhone shipments.

"Even if TSLA BEV share falls modestly TSLA stock can do well if soaring EV adoption offsets it," he said.

Tesla shares bottomed at $152.37 (intraday basis) on April 27 and have soared over 40% as they ended Friday's session at $213.97.

In premarket trading on Monday, Tesla shares edged up 0.25% to $214.50, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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