Reassuring Market Adoption of Daybue Fuels Acadia's Strategic Advancements, Analysts Boost Price Targets

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc ACAD expanded its current licensing agreement for trofinetide with Neuren Pharmaceuticals to acquire ex-North American rights to the drug. 

For Q2, the company expects interim Daybue sales of $21-$23 million and Nuplazid sales of $140-$144 million. For Q3, Daybue (trofinetide) sales guidance stands at $45-$55 million.

JMP Securities reiterates the Market Perform rating with a price target of $39, up from $31.

The analyst suggests that the path to profitability looks more solid due to the successful launch of Daybue. Despite the initial payment to Neuren, management reaffirms that Acadia has sufficient funds to execute its business plan. 

The acquisition of global rights to trofinetide and the addition of NNZ-2591 to the pipeline represents a strategic move reinforced by the early strength of the Daybue launch.

Needham keeps the Hold rating. The analyst notes that management's commentary on initial market adoption and payer coverage is positive and reassuring. 

As the launch progresses, the focus will be on monitoring for persistence.

Preliminary net sales for Daybue in Q2, between $21-23 million vs. consensus of $2.3 million, reflects positive initial launch metrics.

With a Buy rating, HC Wainwright increased the price target from $28 to $33.

The analyst says the promising initial net sales data for Daybue (trofinetide) appears to be influenced by several factors, including the lack of any existing disease-modifying drug for Rett syndrome, a broad label that could have aided in patient enrollment across genders, and usage by a broad age group, though it primarily represents younger patients. 

The strong interest from prescribers and the patient community, largely driven by trial data, also contribute significantly.

Price Action: ACAD shares are up 25.70% at $32.43 on the last check Friday.