For many months, the most likely outcome of the 2024 presidential election based on polls and betting markets has been a rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who faced off against each other in the 2020 presidential election.
The most recent betting odds are reinforcing this idea, revealing some unexpected contenders and underperformers among the potential 2024 presidential candidates.
What Happened: The 2024 election has been seen as a potential three-person race between Biden, Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for many months. With DeSantis hitting record-low ratings in election polls, betting odds have taken notice of his decline.
U.S. residents can’t actively bet with online sportsbooks on whom the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc DKNG are live in Ontario and offer betting for residents of Canada. Foreign sportsbooks in Europe and other markets may also offer betting on the 2024 election.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told Benzinga earlier this year that he hopes someday political betting on big races such as president will be allowed in the U.S.
“It’s more popular than you might think outside the U.S., a lot of people around the world, particularly in our neighbor in Canada, pay attention,” Robins said.
Robins said DraftKings would work with regulators to get election betting approved for states that offer legalized betting.
“I think if it were in the U.S., it would be even bigger. I don’t see any particular reason not to allow for election betting in the U.S.”
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds from Bet365 as provided by Covers with odds from Aug. 2, 2023 along with previous odds from the months of June 2023, May 2023, April 2023, February 2023 and November 2022.
Betting Odds
| Name | August 2023 | June 2023 | May 2023 | April 2023 | February 2023 | November 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +162 | +150 | +150 | +175 | +250 | +550 |
| Donald Trump | +200 | +250 | +240 | +250 | +350 | +330 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +900 | +1200 | +1400 | +10,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Gavin Newsom | +1000 | +2000 | +3300 | +4000 | +2000 | +1400 |
| Ron DeSantis | +1200 | +450 | +450 | +350 | +300 | +225 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +1600 | +6600 | +8000 | +10,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Michelle Obama | +2500 | +2800 | +3300 | +4000 | +3500 | +3500 |
| Kamala Harris | +3300 | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 | +1800 | +1200 |
| Nikki Haley | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3500 | +2000 | +2800 |
| Tim Scott | +5000 | +6600 | +6600 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Pence | +5000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 | +3500 | +2000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +10,000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3500 | +2500 |
Outside the national race, Bet365 also lists odds for the Republican nomination, with the following three heavily favored over the rest of the field:
- Trump: -275
- DeSantis: +500
- Ramaswamy: +800
Related Link: Biden Vs. Trump: One Poll Shows A Dead Heat, Another Poll Shows One Candidate Widening Their Lead
Why It’s Important: Biden continues to lead the way in the latest betting odds with a slight dip from the June rankings. The odds come as Trump received a third indictment this week and is set for several court appearances throughout the rest of 2023.
The biggest gainers on the list were Robert Kennedy Jr and Vivek Ramaswamy. Benzinga recently reported that Kennedy is seeing support growing among Republicans, but still facing large odds to beat Biden for the Democratic Party nomination.
Kennedy moved up to third with odds of +900 to be the next president of the United States. This marks another big gain for the Democratic candidate.
Ramaswamy is now ranked sixth in the betting odds with odds of +1600, marking a sharp increase from his odds of +6600 in the June rankings. The biotech entrepreneur was recently interviewed by Elon Musk and David Sacks on Twitter Spaces, which led to an increase in followers on the social media platform.
Ramaswamy has also been gaining in election polls, with the latest Morning Consult poll showing him getting 9% of the vote among GOP voters for a hypothetical Republican primary.
Ranking fourth and gaining in the betting odds is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has not officially declared a campaign for the election. Many experts see Newsom joining the race among Democratic candidates.
The biggest drop in the betting odds comes to DeSantis, who was one seen as a front-runner. After having odds of +450 or better in recent months and ranking third, DeSantis drops to fifth place with odds of +1200. The drop comes as DeSantis has hit record lows of 15% in Morning Consult election polls among Republican voters.
Despite having numerous candidates in the Republican field for the GOP nomination, Trump continues to dominate polls. The latest Morning Consult GOP poll found that 58% of Republican voters would select Trump for the party’s vote currently, giving him a 43-point lead over DeSantis.
The Republican odds listed by Bet365 assign around a 73% chance that Trump will win the party’s nomination.
On the prediction marketplace, PredictIt, Biden ranks first at 43 cents, followed by Trump at 31 cents and DeSantis at 21 cents. On PredictIt, the winner pays out $1 for each market. The previous odds shared in June were 55 cents, 28 cents and 23 cents for Biden, Trump and DeSantis, respectively.
For the GOP nomination, Trump leads the way at 58 cents, followed by DeSantis at 17 cents, Ramaswamy at 15 cents and Scott at 9 cents. In June, Trump was listed at 55 cents, compared to 32 cents for DeSantis.
Among Democrat candidates on PredictIt, Biden is listed at 70 cents, with Newsom at 21 cents and Harris at 8 cents. In June, Biden held a 70-cent to 20-cent advantage over Newsom.
Read Next: Vivek 'Da Vek' Ramaswamy: The 2024 Presidential Candidate Who Might Just Rap His Inauguration
Photo: Gage Skidmore and Matt Johnson on flickr
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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