12 Million US Workers May Need To Switch Jobs By 2030 Due To AI: Study

By 2030, generative AI is projected to significantly disrupt the U.S. workforce, necessitating around 12 million job switches and potentially automating 30% of the hours worked in the U.S. economy.

What Happened: According to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute, researchers anticipate that approximately 11.8 million workers will switch jobs due to the rise in generative AI. Around 9 million individuals might need to seek employment in entirely new industries.

Workers will transition to new career paths due to various factors, McKinsey noted. While some may face job displacement, others will be drawn to higher-paying industries or fields where their skills are in high demand, the report said.

According to McKinsey, the healthcare sector, which already has an estimated 1.9 million job openings as of April, will add roughly 5.5 million new jobs through 2030.

Over the next couple of years, there will be a 23% surge in demand for STEM jobs, driven by the widespread integration of AI in various industries beyond tech.

However, with generative AI's proficiency in administrative tasks, positions such as office support and customer service will see a decline in demand by 18% and 13%, respectively, by 2030. In the food service sector, a smaller decrease of 2% is anticipated during the same timeframe, according to McKinsey. 

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The reduced job demand for office support roles may disproportionately affect women. Furthermore, reduced customer service and food service demand could pose heightened risks for Black and Hispanic employees, McKinsey said. 

“It is important to note that automation adoption is not the same as eliminating jobs,” the report said. “Many jobs with some automatable tasks will remain, but the day-to-day nature of what people do and how they do it changes.”

According to McKinsey, individuals who stay in their current jobs will experience a dramatic change in their work, with generative AI automating approximately 30% of their work hours.

McKinsey estimated that, without generative AI, the current technologies could automate roughly 22% of work hours among U.S. employees.

The increase to 30% can be attributed to AI technologies like ChatGPT and other tools’ ability to perform tasks that require genuine expertise, even creativity, that previous technologies couldn’t achieve.

McKinsey's analysis predicted a loss of 1.1 million jobs paying $38,200 or less, but a 3.8 million increase in jobs offering salaries of $68,700 per year. However, the lowest-paid workers, earning $38,200 or less, will be heavily affected, with up to 14 times more likely to need job changes.

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