Unpacking Blueprint Medicines' Ayvakit's Bright Future: Insights From Latest Physician Survey On Sales Predictions

Needham slightly increased the price target for Blueprint Medicines Corp BPMC from $65 to $66 with a Buy rating.

The analysts Ami Fadia and Eason Lee note a survey of 20 physicians who treat, on average, 28 Indolent systemic mastocytosis (ISM) patients each. 

ISM is a rare, usually benign, chronic form of systemic mastocytosis characterized by an abnormal accumulation of neoplastic mast cells, mainly in the bone marrow but also in other organs or tissues.

Additionally, the prescribers indicated that they expect the number of Ayvakit (avapritinib)-treated ISM patients to grow 70% vs. present by 2024.

It is very early in the launch, and Needham analysts expect new physicians to start prescribing Ayvakit as Blueprint builds awareness among allergists/immunologists. Thus, based on the survey, Needham increased the estimate of ISM patients on Ayvakit by 32% for 4Q23 from 190 to 250 and 8% for 2024 from 370 to 400 patients.

Regarding Cogent Biosciences Inc's COGT bezuclastinib, physicians expect it to gain a peak market share of 45% if it demonstrates comparable efficacy to Ayvakit but 53% if its efficacy proves superior.

Price Action: BPMC shares are up 3.58% at $51.06 on the last check Monday.