Arm's IPO: A Resurgence In IPO Market Or Exception To The Rule?

Arm Ltd, a British chip designer backed by SoftBank Group Corp SFTBY SFTBF, on Monday filed for its highly anticipated initial public offering with valuations estimated between $60 billion and $70 billion.

Arm's IPO is significant when viewed against the backdrop of a year characterized by a noticeable reduction in IPOs, which sparked debate among experts about the future of the tech IPO market.

First, Some History: Arm’s decision to go public marks its return to public markets since its acquisition by SoftBank in 2016. Those who’ve been tracking Arm’s journey will remember the collapsed deal to sell the chipmaker to Nvidia Corporation NVDA, derailed by antitrust concerns.

Meanwhile, SoftBank’s valuation estimations find an anchor in a 25% stake acquired from its Vision Fund subsidiary, providing insight into the company’s current financial health.

But, as investors, not all the news is necessarily good news.

Despite booking revenues in the billions, Arm saw a marginal decrease in revenue and net income for the fiscal year ending this March. The disparity between U.S. GAAP and international accounting standards — which suggests potential inconsistencies — is notable but doesn’t take away from the company’s overall profitability and strong standing in the market.

Arm's IPO comes at a time when the landscape of the stock market is shifting.

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Exchange giants, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq, are locked in competition, Benzinga previously reported, hinting at a potential resurgence in the IPO market. Both are aggressively vying for new listings, with Nasdaq clinching Arm’s deal.

The previous year, 2022, is remembered for the lowest funds raised through traditional IPOs in over two decades. Interestingly, despite Nasdaq’s recent win, NYSE currently takes the lead in funds raised this year, suggesting a potential end to Nasdaq’s consecutive four-year dominance.

But is Arm’s IPO a true indicator of the drought’s end in the tech IPO sector? Opinions differ.

While some industry insiders are hopeful, expert voices urge caution as Arm’s vast scale, profitability and concentrated focus on cutting-edge AI and semiconductors set it apart as an exceptional case.

It is not the benchmark that other VC-backed companies can compare themselves against, given their differing scales and operational models, according to PitchBook VC analyst Kyle Stanford.

Stanford's cautionary stance gains weight when considering that 2021 was an unprecedented year for IPOs, but the subsequent shift towards efficiency over unchecked growth and looming macroeconomic concerns raised doubts about the market’s sustained vitality.

As the tech sector collectively holds its breath — namely for Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday after market close — IPOs from big names like Stripe and SpaceX loom on the horizon. These private (and giant) companies’ decisions to go public could potentially recalibrate the entire IPO landscape, offering clues to its future trajectory.

Expert predictions, like those from Citigroup Inc.'s C U.S. Head of Banking John Chirico suggest that the next few months to a year could see a growing argument for public listings, even at lower valuations.

Chirico told Yahoo! Finance that he's optimistic about an IPO volume rebound by early 2024.

So, while Arm’s IPO is undeniably monumental, heralding it as a definite harbinger of a booming tech IPO market might be a touch premature.

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