Prigozhin Crash Raises Questions: What Are The Actual Odds Of A Plane Going Down?

Last week, a plane carrying Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin as well as nine other passengers, crashed in Russia, killing everyone on board.

The Grey Zone, a Wagner-linked media group, accused Vladamir Putin and the Russian government of shooting down the plane. Russian officials have not confirmed or released findings from its investigation yet. 

So, with a major plane crash back in the news, let’s consider the actual odds of being in a plane crash.

Read Also: Boris Johnson Points Finger At Kremlin For Death Of Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

According to airlines.org, there have been only two fatalities attributed to commercial airline accidents in the last 10 years in the U.S. A NTSB study found that your odds of dying in a commercial plane crash is about one in 30 million.

To put that number in context, your odds of getting struck by lightning at some point in your lifetime are about 1 in 15,000, according to the National Weather Service. 

What About Private? 

Commercial airlines are significantly safer than flying private. According to a study from Harvard, chartered airplanes are nine times more likely to crash than commercial jetliners, while privately operated airplanes are about 33 times more likely to crash than commercial planes. 

You might think that if you are ever in any sort of plane crash, it’s game over. But, according to safety data from the NTSB, there have been more than 200 total accidents or crashes throughout the last 10 years from commercial airlines, and only two fatalities. The NTSB says your odds of surviving some sort of plane crash are more than 95%.

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