Munster Warns Apple's 'Wonderlust' Event 'May Fall Flat' If Expectations Are Heavy — Outlines 3 'Material' Updates

On the eve of Apple, Inc.'s AAPL "Wonderlust" iPhone 15 launch event, Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster shared his take on what to expect from the event.

What Happened: The event may “fall flat” for some investors looking for a surprise new product or some AI hype, said Munster in a series of posts X, formerly Twitter. The fund manager expects three material updates from the event.

iPhone Features: The iPhone 15 Apple is expected to unveil at the event will include the typical camera improvements, faster chip and better battery, Munster said. He also expects two notable changes, namely titanium casing to make it lighter and a new programmable button similar to the Apple Watch.

These incremental updates, though may seem insignificant, should be taken into context as to who the buyer is, Munster said. About 400 million+ iPhones are more than four years old and are likely candidates for upgrades, the tech analyst said, adding that for these buyers a move from the iPhone 11 to the iPhone 15 will be a significant upgrade.

iPhone upgrades alone may help Apple beat Street estimates of about 220 million iPhone unit sales in 2024, he said.

See Also: Everything You Need To Know About Apple Stock

iPhone Pricing: Munster expects Apple to launch four variants with no price hikes.

For reference, here is the current iPhone lineup. pic.twitter.com/ii42H4MsCZ

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) September 11, 2023

The iPhone lineup pricing ranges from $429 to $1,199 in essentially $100 increments and if Apple were to raise the price of just the new iPhone 15 models it would disrupt their established and highly effective pricing curve, Munster said.

Alternatively, if Apple wants to hike prices and maintain the linearity of the pricing curve as well, it may have to raise the price of every phone by $100, he said. This, the analyst said would be a “risky proposition” in the current environment.

But Apple has the leeway to increase prices by increasing the price of storage, the analyst said. “Incremental storage has 90%+ gross margins compared to overall product gross margins of 36%,” he said.

Apple Watch: Munster expects incremental updates for the Apple Watch. Apple Watch Series 9 will likely include a faster chip for the first time since the Series 6, a better heart-rate monitor, and the new Ultra will likely be lighter, he said.

The entry-level Apple Watch family price of $249 for the SE will likely go up by $50, the fund manager said. He expects the Watch growth to accelerate from 5% currently to 15%.

Tweaks to AirPods and an iPad launch cannot be ruled out, he added

Apple ended Monday's session at $179.66, up 0.66%, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Read Next: Will iPhone 15 Be A Meaningful Upgrade? KeyBanc Analyst Weighs In On Main Features, Carrier Deals

Photo courtesy: Apple