Monday's Market Minute: Big Week Ahead For Investors

First, a look at some of the central bank policy decisions to keep an eye on: at the top of the list we have the FOMC set to announce Wednesday. While the Fed is largely expected to leave rates unchanged, investors and traders will be looking to the statement of economic projections for further insight as to what to expect from the Fed as we head into the fourth quarter. With not a lot of clarity from individual Fed speakers as of recent, traders will be looking to the dot plot for answers.

Comments from the Bank of Japan will be key after last week's suggestion there could be an openness to move away from the BOJ's negative rate policy. Many wonder if the tone last week was for real or more an attempt to support the yen, which is just off the year low (it’s struggled since January). In the Asia Pacific region in general, the activity data as of recent been strong while property markets remain weak. We'll also hear from the Bank of England, which, along the lines of what we got from the ECB last week, is expected to raise 25bps.

Keep an eye on crude oil: last week the WTI moved convincingly back above $90 to levels not seen since November of last year. The national average for a gallon of gas is on the rise as well this week, to $3.88 up from $3.83 a week ago. The steady grind higher in energy markets comes with rates here in the U.S. at stubbornly elevated levels as well, with the 10-year at 4.33% and the 2-year around 5%. While U.S. indices have managed to shrug off yields and the runup in energies, if the rise continues, at some point it will become a force to reckon with.

The S&P 500 has been rangebound since June, a win for the bulls considering some of the headwinds this fall with crude, rates, and the rising U.S. Dollar. The VIX last week fell below 13 to levels not seen since 2020, a reflection of how the focus is on the Fed's not raising rates this week. But inflation concerns are starting to weigh on sentiment and appear to be holding back further advances. At this point, further gains in crude and rates would add to growing inflation unease.

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