Top Economist David Rosenberg Foresees Fourth Quarter As 'Litmus Test' For Impending Recession

Despite the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy, seasoned economist David Rosenberg continues to forecast an imminent recession. He referred to the upcoming fourth quarter as the “litmus test” for his bearish forecast.

Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, has been anticipating a recession for the past year and a half. He maintains his stance, arguing that a recession typically follows about two years after the start of a rate hike cycle, as reported by Markets Insider.

“It’s as if, if it doesn’t snow in December, then we’ll just call off winter,” Rosenberg said.

Despite strong credit card issuance bolstering the economy, Rosenberg argued, “Those are not recurring.”

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His predictions have remained consistent since the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated its current rate hike cycle in March 2022 to curb high inflation. At that time, Rosenberg saw a 75% probability of a US recession by the end of 2022.

His views contrast with other experts who believe the U.S. economy might achieve a “soft landing” due to robust spending. This scenario would see the Fed’s continuous rate hikes achieve its goal of controlling inflation without inciting a recession.

Nevertheless, rising oil prices, nearing $100 a barrel, could disrupt central banks’ efforts to control inflation. Increased oil prices typically lead to inflation, as energy is a crucial input for economic activities.

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