B&G Foods Shares Diving Today: What's Going On?

B&G Foods Inc BGS shares are trading lower by around 11% after Piper Sandler analyst Michael S. Lavery downgraded it to Underweight from Neutral at a lowered price target to $8 from $14.

The analyst is bearish as the company's Q3 US measured retail sales are declining (-11.5%, per SPINS/IR) and below analysts' expectations. 

Lavery now expects a Q3 organic revenue decline of 7.5% (vs. -4.5% projected earlier). 

The analyst also notes the risk of trade inventory de-loading on continued lower volumes and the resulting headwind of retailers adjusting shelf space at par with lower unit volume sales.

The analyst notes that BGS issued new shares worth $75 million under its ATM offering in Q3, leading to FY24 EPS dilution of $0.07. Also, the debt payment and refinancing added a $0.17 hit to FY24 EPS, he said.

Consequently, the analyst lowered the EPS estimate to $0.94 (from $1.05) in FY23 and $0.80 (from $1.10) in FY24.

Also, Lavery cut the revenue estimate to $2,046.5 million (from $2,071.7 million) for FY23 and $1,984.7 million (from $2,041.5 million) for FY24.

Price Action: BGS shares are down 10.76% at $8.46 on the last check Wednesday.