Bitcoin Poised For 74% Boost To $59,200 In First Year Post ETF Launch, Predicts Galaxy Digital

Bitcoin’s BTC/USD value is predicted to soar by a staggering 74% in the first year following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., according to estimates from cryptocurrency investment firm Galaxy Digital.

The predictions, according to a Cointelegraph report, suggest that the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would hit $14.4 trillion in the first year post-launch. The 74% figure was derived from assessing the potential price impact of fund inflows on Bitcoin ETF products, using gold ETFs as a baseline.

Research associate at Galaxy Digital, Charles Yu, estimated that Bitcoin’s price would climb by 6.2% in the first month after an ETF launch, before gradually falling to a 3.7% monthly increase by the 12th month. Based on Bitcoin’s price data from Sep. 30, a 74.1% increase would set Bitcoin’s price at $59,200.

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Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, estimated in an Oct. 19 post that Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.

Yu also predicted that the US Bitcoin ETFs' addressable market size would reach $26.5 trillion in the second year post-launch, and $39.6 trillion after the third year.

Yu acknowledged that a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs could affect these price predictions. Nevertheless, he stated that these estimates were still conservative and did not include “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

He also suggested that “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin,” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the possibility of rates peaking in the near term.

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