Match Group's Stock Crashes On Weak Outlook: These Analysts Look At Company's Prospects

Match Group Inc MTCH shares tanked in early trading on Wednesday, after the company reported its third-quarter results.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the earnings release.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Match Group

Analyst Justin Patterson said in a note the company’s preliminary 2024 revenue guidance was “slightly below our expectations,” while the fourth-quarter guidance came in lower than expected “due to geopolitical risk, FX, and macro factors like student loans.”

“Management also expects Tinder direct revenue growth of ~11% y/y driven by slightly larger revenue per payer (RPP) growth and payer declines,” the analyst wrote.

He added that Match Group’s adjusted operating income guidance reflected “35% margin at the midpoint” of guidance range, which falls short of the consensus estimates.

Piper Sandler On Match Group

Analyst Matt Farrell reiterated an Overweight rating on the stock.

The third-quarter results were “slightly ahead of expectations,” while the fourth-quarter guidance was disappointing, Farrell said in a note. He added the biggest takeaway was “commentary around Tinder payers in Q4.”

“Investor expectations were low for Tinder payers in the back half of the year, but the implied number for Q4 is likely even below the depressed expectations,” the analyst wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

RBC Capital Markets On Match Group

Analyst Brad Erickson reaffirmed an Outperform rating and price target of $52.

Match Group reported in-line revenues and EBITDA upside “driven by lower G&A, partially offset by higher R&D expenses,” Erickson wrote in a note.

“Tinder revenue accelerated 500bps to 11% y/y driven by U.S. pricing optimizations and weekly packages, while payers declined 6% y/y and modestly q/q (from 10.5M),” the analyst stated. “Hinge revenue accelerated 900bps to 44% y/y driven by core and European markets as the app ranked #1 in downloads in several key markets,” he added.

Truist Securities On Match Group

Analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Hold rating and price target of $50.

Hinge was again “the star performer” and generated strong direct revenue growth, as “the company's geographic expansion bore fruit in the quarter, with the expansion in English-speaking and European countries leading to downloads growing ~44% Y/Y,” Squali said.

He added, however, that Asia continues to face headwinds, “although the revenue declines seem to be stabilizing.”

MTCH Price Action: Shares of Match Group had declined by 16.42% to $28.93 at the time of publication Wednesday.

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