Is There Room for Improvement In Weight Loss Arena? Analysts Evaluate Novo Nordisk Data, Emphasize Opportunities for Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly And Co's LLY investigational RNA-directed drug lepodisiran lowered lipoprotein(a) levels in a Phase 1 study. Elevated levels of Lp(a) have been associated with a higher risk of heart disease, heart attack, and stroke.

The results were presented at the American Heart Association's scientific meeting and published in JAMA.

The trial enrolled 48 participants without cardiovascular disease and with lipoprotein(a) concentrations of 75 nmol/L or greater (or ≥30 mg/dL). A single serious adverse event occurred. 

The maximal median change from baseline in serum lipoprotein(a) concentrations was −5% in the placebo group, −41% in the 4 mg of lepodisiran group, −59% in the 12-mg dose group, −76% in the 32-mg dose group, −90% in the 96-mg dose group, −96% in the 304-mg dose group, and −97% in the 608-mg dose group. 

At day 337 (almost a year), the median change in lipoprotein(a) was −94% in the 608-mg dose group.

Lepodisiran was well tolerated and produced dose-dependent, long-duration reductions in serum lipoprotein(a) concentrations.

Over the weekend, Novo Nordisk A/S NVO released the primary results of the SELECT phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes trial investigating the effects of once-weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy) in adults with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) and overweight or obesity without diabetes.

The detailed findings showed that risk reductions in MACE were achieved regardless of age, gender, ethnicity, and starting body mass index.

UBS says, overall, Novo Nordisk's data is among its best-case scenarios for Eli Lilly, showing the benefit of GLP-1 class in obesity but also leaving significant room for improvement, where Zepbound has its own cardiovascular outcomes trial (SURMOUNTMMO) reading out in 2027.

JP Morgan writes that the SELECT study should support broader insurance coverage and adoption of the incretin class in obesity. 

The analyst notes these clinical benefits were generated despite weight loss of ~10% from Wegovy, and there is the potential for even more impressive results from Lilly's Zepbound and Novo/Lilly's next-generation incretins over time. 

Price Action: LLY shares are up 2.97% at $615.44 on the last check Monday.